Chargers at Saints: Week 5 Free Pick

San Diego Chargers New Orleans Saints Free Pick Week 5 2012

Should the San Diego Chargers Be Favored vs the Saints…?

New Orleans Saints are NOT who you thought they were. After their turbulent offseason, the Saints sit at 0-4. Things do not get any easier for the reeling Saints. Next, they enter a difficult Sunday Night contest vs. the San Diego Chargers.

Oddsmakers have set the Saints as a -3.5 point underdogs. When we look at the Chargers getting +3.5 points in New Orleans, we are seeing excellent betting value.

Here, we will provide you with a Chargers vs Saints free pick. First, we will provide you with our handicapping notes and observations on the game. Next, we will run the game through our NFL Betting System. Finally, we will summarized our overall thoughts and provide you our free pick.

Note – OWR’s Free NFL Picks are 9-3-1 on the season. All our free picks are based off “The Guide to NFL Investing”. Continue reading to learn more…


San Diego Chargers at New Orleans Saints Odds:

San Diego Chargers at New Oreans Saints
Sunday, October 7th, 8:20pm Odds Consensus
Teams Money Open Current Spread Over/Under
San Diego Chargers +165 52.5 54 37% 37%
New Orleans Saints -195 -3 -3.5 63% 63%

San Diego Chargers at New Orleans Saints Handicapping Notes:

1. San Diego enters this contest with an overall record of 3-1 (3-1 ATS). They have no quality wins on the season. Their 1 loss came at home to the Atlanta Falcons.

2. Offensively, San Diego has played decent. They rank 18th in the league in Yards Per Pass Attempt (YDSA). SD ranks 22nd in the league in Average Yard Per Drive (29 yds)…

3. San Diego’s defense has played well in 2012. They rank 7th in Yards Per Pass Attempt Allowed (YDSAa). SD also ranks 6th in the NFL in Average Starting Field Position…

4. These two stats are excellent barometer’s of San Diego’s defensive efficiency. Both show San Diego’s is able to stop drives and get off the field.

5. San Diego has had success turning opponents over in 2012. SD ranks 5th in Takeaways per game (2.2).

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7. New Orleans has been a mess so far in 2012. They enter this contest with an 0-4 record (1-3 ATS). NO has 2 “bad” losses on the season (CAR and KC)…

8. These are not your Saints of the past. They have had trouble stopping anyone. They lack leadership and emotion. Lets look at them statistically…

9. Offensively, New Orleans ranks 19th in YDSA. In contrast, they ranked 3rd in the league in 2011…

10. They have also been careless with the ball in 2012. New Orleans ranks 18th with 1.5 giveaways per game…

11. The Saints’ defense (or lack thereof) has been the story in 2012…

12. New Orleans ranks 29th in the league in YDSAa…

13. Furthermore, NO ranks 28th in Average Starting Field Position…

14. Combine these two statistics and you find a defense struggling to stop the pass. This leads to long, sustained drives by their opponents. Overall, very poor defensive efficiency.

15. I fully expect this trend to continue Sunday Night. San Diego should be able to move the chains and keep New Orleans’ defense on the field…

16. More on this in the summary…

Saints vs Chargers, Setting Our Point Spread:

Now is the time we set our own point spread for the San Diego vs New Orleans game. We do this in an attempt to discover the accuracy of the oddsmakers/sportsbooks point spread.

The process we are about to use below is all found in our proprietary NFL Betting System – “The Guide to NFL Investing”. Here is quick summary on the process:

The Guide to NFL Investing” is OWR’s proprietary NFL Handicapping System. Through the use of several handicapping tools, (which include total wins, power rankings and margin of victory statistics) we set our own NFL lines. The creation of these proprietary point spreads helps us discover inaccurate NFL lines and betting value.

First step, review our Power Rankings to determine where these two teams fall. We take a look at our Week 5 Power Rankings where we have determined:

San Diego: 9 wins
New Orleans: 4 wins

Note – yes, these win totals are debatable. Keep in mind, these are based off our views of the NFL. With our system you are able to set your own power rankings based on your league opinions/perspectives.

Next step, we run these Power Rankings through our proprietary Margin of Victory tools (all found in the book). Doing so, we conclude the line for this game should be…

San Diego -8
New Orleans +8

As you can see, when we use our line setting tools, San Diego should be favored in this matchup! This line has been grossly mis-set by oddsmakers. By betting SD +3.5 points you will be getting incredible betting value.

Saints vs Chargers Free Pick Conclusion:

This game is an excellent example of the betting public overrating a team. The betting public is forming their opinions on old data, which tells them New Orleans is a top NFL team. These incorrect opinions lead to incorrect lines, and we have identified it.

This over-rating is apparent in the 63% of bettors laying -3.5 points in this matchup. Honestly, I am shocked to one sided betting on the Saints. But it confirms my beliefs. In this type of matchup, I will bet against the consensus every day of the week.

Let me just say this, New Orleans is far from a top NFL team. The reality is (and the statistics show us) New Orleans is a mess. It may start in the locker room, but it’s showing in the box score and on the field.

New Orleans is the story in this game. They have truly lacked any emotion and motivation, especially on the defensive end. Expect San Diego to move the ball at will in this Sunday Night game. Take the +3.5 points and bet San Diego with confidence.

Saints vs Chargers Free Pick:

San Diego Chargers +3.5


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