Arizona vs St. Louis: My Handicapping Notes

Cardinals Rams Handicapping Notes - Week 5 2012

Arizona Cardinals vs St. Louis Rams Handicapping Notes

For tonight’s Arizona vs St. Louis Thursday Night Football game, OWR is not making an official pick.

Oddsmakers have set the Rams as a +1 point home underdogs. We this point spread has been well set for the matchup. As most of you know, we do not make a prediction unless we feel the line is inaccurate and we see “value”.

To assist our users in handicapping this Arizona vs Rams Prime Time game (which I know everyone likes to bet), I will provide my handicapping notes for the contest. I will list here all my notes and observations I made when handicapping this contest.

Just a word of caution – Be careful when you place your wager on tonight’s game. This is line has been well set. We don’t feel their is a substantial edge bettors gain when wagering on this matchup.

But, if your are looking to bet the game, use the information below as another tool in your handicapping tool box…


Arizona Cardinals vs St. Louis Rams Handicapping Notes

1. Arizona enters this contest with a 4-0 record (3-1 ATS). They have quality wins vs. Seattle, New England and Philadelphia.

2. Their team is lead by solid defense. Arizona currently rank 1st in Average Starting Field position, 4th in total takeaways per game (2.5). 12th in the league in Yards Allowed Per Pass Attempt.

3. These are impactful statistics that show the true efficiency of Arizona’s defense. And these stats have been posted against top offenses in the league (NE and PHI).

4. Offensively, Arizona is fair at best. A reflection of this is ARI 29th ranking in Yards Per Pass Attempt (YDSA). They can also be turnover prone (1.5 giveaways per game).

5. Arizona also ranks last in the league in average yards per drive. Another indicator their offensive fire power is limited.

5. Arizona will look to keep the score low and play solid defense. That is their mantra. When the can keep the scoring down, they win ball games.

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6. St. Louis enter this match up with a 2-2 overall record (3-1 ATS). They have one quality win on the season (WAS at home).

7. STL has done a decent job on defense in 2012. They rank 11th in Yards Per Pass Attempt Allowed and 10th is Avg. Starting Field Position…

8. St. Louis has also been able to turn teams over effectively. They average 2 takeaways per game (ranks 10th in the NFL).

9. Offensively, St. Louis iis similar to Arizona in many respects. They rank a the bottom of the league in many offensive efficiency statistics…

10 STL ranks 28th in Average Yards per Drive and 25th in YDSA.

11. I would not put much weight into recent trends between these two teams. Past data will play a very minor role in the outcome of this game.

Arizona vs St. Louis -What The Guide to NFL Investing show us…

When we run this game through our NFL Betting System, “The Guide to NFL Investing” (learn more), we find that this line is set well.

In our Week 5 Power Rankings, we have determined STL as a 6 win team and ARI as a 9 win team.

Taking these win totals into consideration, we find the line should be…

St. Louis +1

As you can see, this is almost exactly as the books have it. So again, I would be very cautious playing the side in this meeting. This game could come down to a field goal either way.

Arizona vs St. Louis Handicapping Summary:

I see this game as being a defensive battle, where offense is limited. Arizona is clearly the better team in this matchup, but there are several factors at play that could drive ARI to play below their skill.

Remember, this is road game for ARI, on a short week. Always a tough setup for any team.

Overall, I see this game begin a 3 point contest. My perspective on the league shows that this line is well set, so be cautious.

Next, see our Seattle at Carolina Week 5 Free Pick…

Originally posted on

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