Archive for September, 2012

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GeoComply Boosts Fraud Prevention Capabilities with MaxMind

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Texans vs Titans: Cost-free NFL Decide on

Houston Texans vs Tennessee Titans Free Pick, Week 4

Tennessee Titans vs Houston Texans Free Pick, NFL Week 4

Underdogs have dominated bets in 2012. Overall, underdogs have hit 62.5% against the spread (30-18-1). This is a huge number. In the upcoming weeks, one can assume a reversion to the mean (which is about 52%). In other words, the pendulum will swing and favorites will start winning bets.

We do see several favorites with betting value in Week 4, but the Tennessee Titans are an exception. They are currently set as a 12 point road underdog to the Houston Texans.

In this post we will provide a Titans at Texans Free NFL Pick. We will also provide some handicapping notes for the game. In summary, we will run the game through our NFL betting system – “The Guide to NFL Investing”.

OWR’s Free NFL picks are currently on a 6-0 run. All our free picks are based on the fundamental approach taught in the “The Guide”. Continue reading to learn more.


Titans vs Texans Game Info:

Sunday, September 30th, 1pm ET
Reliant Stadium, Houston TX

Opening Point Spread: TEN +12/HOU -12
Current Point Spread: TEN +12/HOU -12
Betting Consensus: 71% HOU – 29% TEN
Over/Under: 44.5

Titans vs Texans Handicapping Notes:

1. The Titans are an underrated football team. That is the main theme here. They currently sit at 1-2 (1-2 ATS). They have played better football than their record indicates.

2. Tennessee is currently 13th in the league in Yard Per Pass Attempt (7.1). The YDSA statistic is a very good gauge of offensive efficiency. It also has a high correlation with win %.

3. Defense, Tennessee looks ugly on the surface. Through 3 weeks, they are allowing 37 points per game. But this vanilla statistic could be deceiving. These point totals came at the hands of three of the best offenses in the league – NE, @SD and DET.

4. Last week, they took a potential 10 win team (Detroit) down to the wire. They lost in overtime, but showed they can handle a top tier NFL team.

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5. Statistically, Houston jumps off the page. They rank 5th in Yard per Pass Attempt (7.6 yds) and 4th in Yards per Pass Attempt Allowed (5.2 yds)…

6. But…lets put this into context. These statistics were posted against lower “class” opponents. (MIA, @JAX, DEN). Denver is the only potential 10+ win team of their first 3 opponents (and one can argue DEN is a 8 win team max).

7. This is a huge factor. Opponents strength. On paper (statistically) this is not even a contest. Blowout Houston…

8. But when we dig below the surface we see these HOU’s statistics were posted against the bottom tier of the league. On the contrary, Tennessee has face 3 of the top 10 teams in the league.

9. We expect this to be a higher scoring game. Tennessee should keep pace and should provide enough firepower to keep the game within 10 points.

Texans vs Titans, Setting our Line:

Now, we get to the fun part. Let’s see if there’s any betting value in the Titans +12 (I think I ruined the surprise). To do this, we run the Texans/Titans matchup through our NFL Betting system.

If you are new to OWR’s free picks, here is a brief overview of our betting system:

The Guide to NFL Investing” is OWR’s priopritary NFL Handicapping System. Through the use of several handicapping tools, (which include total wins, power rankings and margin of victory statistics) we set our own NFL lines. The creation of these priopritary point spreads helps us discover innacurate NFL lines and betting value.

First step, review our dynamic weekly rankings. In our Week 4 Power Rankings, we have set the following variables:

Titans: 6 wins
Texans: 10 wins

(We could be underrating Titans a little here, but we will keep them at 6 wins to be conservative.)

Keep in mind, these are subjective power rankings. This is the beauty of our NFL system. You are able to set your own power rankings based on your views/opinions of the NFL.

Next step, set our line. To do this, we run our Titans/Texans power rankings through our margin of victory tools. Doing so, we conclude:

Titans: +9.5
Texans: -9.5

As you can see, when we run the Texans/Titans game through our NFL system, we determine the line for this game should be closer to HOU -10. When wagering on TEN +12 points you will be realizing very good betting value.

Texans vs Titans Free Pick Conclusion:

The main takeaway here is strength of opponents. This game looks on paper to be no contest. But, the plain vanilla statistics do not tell the whole story.

Texans have rolled over 2 far inferior opponents. The Titans have faced 3 “class” teams of the NFL. Comparing the Texans and Titans stats through 3 weeks is like comparing apples to oranges.

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This is a huge factor. Its causing bettors overestimate Houston’s talent level. More importantly, underestimate Tennessee’s. No question this dynamic is in play.

Expect this game to be high scoring. Both of these teams should be able to move the ball efficiently. But the 12 points is too many. Expect Houston to win the game, but for Tennessee to hang around and make it a ball game.

Texans vs Titans Free Pick:

Tennessee Titans +12


More Week 4 Free Picks – New York Giants at Philadephia Eagles 

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The Weekly Gaming Business Wrap — 9/29/12

Here’s a look at the headlines for this week in the gaming business world. Urbandale Casino Bid Is Withdrawn A casino company in Iowa has withdrawn their plan for a …

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Francisco Da Costa Santos Earns Portugal’s First Bracelet At World Series Of Poker Europe

In the 43-year history of the World Series of Poker, no player from Portugal had ever won a gold bracelet. That changed on Saturday, when Francisco Da Costa Santos took …

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BetVictor chooses ONEworks for new Asian sports betting expansion

BetVictor have picked Asia’s leading sportsbook system provider, ONEworks, for its new sportsbetting enterprise for Asia,
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September 2012
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